Which Country Will Win: Russia or Ukraine? A Deeper Look at the Conflict

Abdullah Cheema

21 Sep, 2024

At first glance, it seems like Russia would win the war against Ukraine easily. Here's why:

Air Force

Russia’s air force has about 190,000 personnel and over 4,000 aircraft. They have modern jets, drones, and high-tech weapons like laser-guided missiles and stealth aircraft. In comparison, Ukraine’s air force has only 36,000 personnel and 225 aircraft. While Ukraine's air force is advanced, it doesn’t compare to Russia’s, which is 20 times larger.

Ground Forces

The Russian army is considered the second strongest in the world, after the U.S. With around 300,000 active soldiers and hundreds of thousands more in reserve, they have a massive military advantage. Russia's tanks, weapons, and equipment are highly advanced, making their ground forces a serious threat. Ukraine's army, although not as big, has 170,000 active personnel. However, many of their weapons are outdated, dating back to the Cold War era.

Economy

Russia’s economy is much larger than Ukraine’s. Russia’s GDP stands at $1.4 trillion, compared to Ukraine’s $155 billion. This economic strength allows Russia to fund its war efforts far longer than Ukraine can.

Geography

Ukraine is surrounded on three sides by Russia, meaning they have a vast border to defend. Russia is attacking from the north, east, and south, forcing Ukraine to spread its forces thin. Also, Ukraine’s mostly flat terrain offers few natural barriers to defend against an invasion.

Diplomacy

Despite Russia’s invasion, the global response has been relatively muted. While sanctions have been imposed, they may not be as effective as hoped. Russia controls key energy resources that Europe relies on, making sanctions difficult to maintain in the long run. For now, it seems like Ukraine is fighting alone, without major military assistance from NATO or other nations.

The Ukrainian Fight

Despite all of this, Ukraine is putting up a strong defense. Their air defenses are holding on, even though Russian airstrikes are slowly weakening them. The real issue for Russia could come if they fully occupy Ukraine, similar to what happened in Chechnya.

In Chechnya, a region much smaller than Ukraine, Russia fought for decades against separatists and jihadists, with brutal results on both sides. Even with the full might of their military, Russia struggled to control the region and still faces an insurgency there.
Ukraine is much larger, and if Russia takes over, there’s a good chance of ongoing resistance. Ukraine’s people are likely to resist occupation, and with potential covert support from the U.S. and NATO, Russia could find itself in a drawn-out, expensive conflict.

The Cost for Russia

If Russia manages to take over Ukraine, the war may not end there. Insurgents could fight back for years, draining Russia’s resources and manpower. Occupying Ukraine will be costly in terms of money, time, and political power. Putin will face challenges in lifting sanctions, managing his economy, and maintaining control over Ukraine.

If Ukraine can hold on and eventually push Russia out, it could be a significant defeat for Putin and a huge blow to Russia’s military strength in the region.

This conflict is far from over, and it could take years to see the full outcome. Whether Russia wins the initial battles or Ukraine eventually prevails, one thing is clear: this war will be long, painful, and difficult for both sides.

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